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Archive for the ‘Ireland’ Category

ASPO Ireland has invited Australian economics professor, Dr. Steve Keen, to Dublin to give a series of lectures as part of his global tour to support the recent publication of a revised edition of his book ‘Debunking Economics‘.

His visit is already generating debate over on the IrishEconomy website.

During his trip he will be presenting at several events:

TASC Economists (4:30pm Tuesday 15th)

ASPO Ireland/Feasta (7pm Tuesday 15th)

IIEA Economics group (open event) (11am Wednesday 16th)

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Morning Seminar – Oct 10th – National Gallery, Dublin 10am

Assessing the Risks

Energy Security and the Global Economy

 

Dr. Roger Bentley [slides]

Prof. Robert Ayres [slides]

Dr. Michael Kumhof [slides]

Following up on our June seminar Energy Security and Competitiveness in a Rapidly Changing World, our next seminar expands on the recent warning from the IMF, published in their April 2011 World Economic Outlook, on the risks of oil scarcity to the global economy.

Access to affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy is a matter of national security, particularly so for a state such as Ireland, heavily dependent on increasingly expensive imported fossil fuels. Since the last seminar we have seen the unprecedented release by the International Energy Agency of their strategic oil reserve in an attempt to ease pressure on rising prices, further oil price volatility, and continuing economic stagnation in Europe and the US.

Dr. Michael Kumhof, a Deputy Chief at the International Monetary Fund will present his latest research on energy augmented macroeconomic models which formed the basis of Chapter 3 of the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook, entitled ‘Oil Scarcity, Growth, and Global Imbalances’. This work is a noteworthy departure from classical economic growth modeling methodologies. He will be joined by Dr. Robert Ayres (INSEAD) and Dr. Roger Bentley (UK ERC), whose respective work on the role of energy in economic growth and oil production forecasts, were referenced in the IMF study.

This seminar will highlight how

  • traditional models of economic growth exclude energy as a factor of production
  • present a new model incorporating energy as a factor of production (Ayres)
  • present an overview of a comprehensive study of future oil production forecasts and their attendant risks (Bentley)
  • an updated IMF model for economic growth incorporating oil and considering different future availability scenarios (Kumhof)
  Dr. Michael Kumhof Deputy Chief, Modeling Unit, Research Department, International Monetary Fund Dr. Kumhof prepared the economic model and ran the oil supply scenarios published in Chapter 3 of the IMF’s April 2011 World Economic Outlook.He will present his latest work on the impact of different future oil availability scenarios on economic growth.
  Dr. Robert U. AyresProfessor Emeritus, INSEAD Prof. Ayres is a co-author of The Economic Growth Engine: How Energy and Work Drive Material Prosperity and Crossing the Energy Divide: Moving from Fossil Fuel Dependence to a Clean-Energy Future. He has published ground-breaking research into the role of energy in determining economic growth, raising fundamental questions about our conventional models for economic prosperity.
  Dr. Roger BentleyUniversity of Reading Dr. Bentley is a leading expert in energy and oil production forecasts. He co-authored Global Oil Depletion (2009), a report commissioned by the UK Energy Research Council. He has studied the often controversial debate on oil production forecasts since the oil crises of the 1970’s and attended the IEA’s meeting in 1997 on oil reserves which formed the warning in their 1998 World Energy Outlook, a warning repeated in their 2008 WEO.

ASPO Ireland has teamed up with SEAI, who will host the event.

RSVP by Wednesday 5th October to Jackie O’Dowd events@seai.ie
Attendance is free and we advise you to book early to avoid disappointment

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To see what is in front of one’s nose requires a constant struggle – Orwell

ASPO Ireland was invited to return this year (last year) to Cultivate‘s Rethink Tank at Global Green, a part of the Electric Picnic festival, to participate in a panel discussion on How green is Ireland? The panel was chaired by Davie Philip of Cultivate, and participants, along with yours truly, were Gavin Harte, Taja Naidoo, and Eamon Ryan.

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Watching Barack Obama walk off Airforce One this morning in Dublin airport into a very blustery day, it inspired me to take a look at the Eirgrid website to see what kind of power our wind turbine fleet is generating.

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ASPO Ireland Director, Richard O’Rourke, remarked during his introduction of Vinay Gupta’s Collapsonomics talk in Dublin last September, that he hoped the government is secretly working on an energy security plan to deal with a crisis situation, should one arise.

The speech below was given by Energy Minister, Eamon Ryan, at the IIEA yesterday, to mark the signature by Ireland on 3 December, 2010 of a Memorandum of Understanding with nine other European countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden France, Germany, the Benelux countries and the UK) on the North Seas Grid initiative. In his speech the Minister recalls a similar question posed by a Russian diplomat at a Council of Minister’s meeting last year. The speech is a reflection on 3.5 years as Minister and the triumphs, trials and tribulations of the role. (more…)

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ASPO Ireland is going through a period of transition, much as the world is, as we move into a post-peak oil world.

ASPO’s origins has been in the technical expertise of largely former oil industry executives, who’s work developing oil production forecast models is and will always continue to be a cornerstone of ASPO’s work. However, we now formally acknowledge (although it’s always been evident from the eclectic followers of Peak Oil) the need to broaden the scope of expertise within ASPO Ireland to include the softer sciences: social, economic, and political.

To that end we are delighted to announce the appointment of Dr. John Barry of Queens University Belfast and Dr. Colin Sage of University College Cork. Their respective expertise in politics and human geography will add enormously to the work still to be done by ASPO Ireland. (more…)

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I was invited to participate in a panel discussion at the Electric Picnic this weekend courtesy of the Global Green Re-Think Tank on the topic of ‘Recession or Revolution?‘ The discussion was chaired by Gavin Harte, and the other members of the panel were Albert Bates, Peadar Kirby, and David McWilliams. (more…)

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